6:30 PM ETCBS/FOX
Lumen Field
Patriots -1.5
Spread-110 Β· stake $100-$100
New England Patriots
14-3
Seattle Seahawks
14-3
Drake Maye is having a historic rookie playoff run - 8.9 yards/attempt (all-time Patriots record, surpassing Brady), 113.5 passer rating, and 72% completion rate. The Patriots transformed from one of the league's worst offenses to the 2nd highest scoring team (490 points). Mike Vrabel's coaching and Maye's poise give New England the edge over Seattle's balanced but less explosive attack. This has shades of Brady's early Super Bowl runs - elite defense, clutch QB play, and a coach who knows how to win in February. The Seahawks have been impressive, but Geno Smith hasn't faced a defense this opportunistic. Take the Patriots to cover the slim spread and potentially win outright.
- Implied probability
- 52.4%
- Our probability
- 75%
- Expected value
- +43.18%
- Kelly stake (ΒΌ)
- $119
- Strong value vs market odds
- High confidence favorite
Strong value bet β edge over the market price.



